U.S. Outstripping Saudi Arabian and Russian Oil Production by 2020? Don’t Bet On It19 Nov

Considerable Gold Rush buzz is streaming throughout the news media about U.S. oil production. According to the Economist, “On November 12th the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rich world’s energy club, forecast that America could become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, outstripping Saudi Arabia and Russia.” Similar exhilarating headlines are found in Forbes, Bloomberg, and Reuters.

These predictions are based oil production increases using advances in hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling utilized in tight oil formations, such as Eagle Ford, Bakken and several others. Yes, oil production from tight formations (i.e., shale) has increased nearly exponentially in the Bakken play (now approaching 700,000 barrels per day) to the point where there is insufficient pipeline capacity for oil transfer to refineries. Statoil, a Norwegian energy company, has leased 1000 train tank cars to move Bakken oil. (One of my blog posts noted that Statoil has declining oil reserves in the North Sea, and is expanding its overseas operations to offset domestic loses.)

U.S. Oil Production by 2020: Figure 1 shows U.S. tight oil production from 2000 through 2012. Notice that production was flat until around 2006 – 2008 when horizontal drilling and fracking contributed enormous gains. “Tight oil refers to crude oil and condensates that are produced from low permeability sandstone, carbonate, and shale formations. The tight oil Technically Recoverable Resources (TRRs) are for the entire formation, including the non-shale portions.” Definitions of TTR and Estimated Ultimate Reserves (EUR) can be found in this reference.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1. Tight oil production

Figure 1 is also note worthy because it indicates a possible tight oil production peak starting around 2011 and may foretell a production decline. There is considerable controversy regarding decline rates of shale oil wells that are produced by fracking and horizontal drilling. There is reason to suspect that decline rates from these wells are different (i.e., steeper) than the traditional, vertically drilled wells. Petroleum geologist Arthur Berman and the analyst   Rune Likvern have shed considerable light on this issue.

Figure 2 illustrates projected tight oil production out to 2035 based on several scenarios (i.e., high TRR, high EUR, reference case and low EUR). Considering the most optimistic case (i.e., high TRR), this figure indicates that by 2020, tight oil production will be approximately 2.5 MM barrels/day (b/d). [Note: M = 1000; MM = 1,000,000]. To estimate the total expected U.S. oil production from known reservoirs by 2020, one should include production from traditional vertical wells from the lower 48 states, Alaska, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These reserves have been declining for years.

By “eye balling” these traditional oil reserves out to 2020, we obtain 4 MM b/d (lower 48 states), 0.400 MM b/d (Alaska) and 0.6 MM b/d (Gulf of Mexico) for a total of 5 MM b/d. Adding the tight oil production projection for 2020 (i.e., 2.5 MM b/d) to the 5 MM b/d figure, the total U.S. domestic production for 2020 is 7.5 MM b/d.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2. Prediction of tight oil production

Conclusion: As of 2011, Russian oil production was 10 MM b/d, while Saudi Arabia had 11 MM b/d. Assuming that these production levels continue, more or less, to 2020, it is highly unlikely that the United States oil production will ever exceed Saudi Arabian and Russian production. Perhaps the major news sources cited previously will come forward to justify their overstated headlines.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

32 Responses to “U.S. Outstripping Saudi Arabian and Russian Oil Production by 2020? Don’t Bet On It”

  1. The Truth about U.S. Oil Reserves: 89th from the Top! | JHEverson Consulting Reply

    […] blog post of November 19, 2012, showed that it was highly unlikely that the United States could produce more […]

  2. U.S. Oil Status: Good and Bad News | JHEverson Consulting Reply

    […] should the Bakken field in North Dakota behave any differently? When the Bakken field becomes uneconomical to produce, […]

  3. The Post Fossil Fuel Era. Any hope? | JHEverson Consulting Reply

    […] pace to surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer by 2020.” According to my recent blog post, that estimate is filled with more hype than […]

  4. sync google plus and facebook Reply

    I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also
    with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it
    yourself? Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it is rare to see a great blog like
    this one nowadays.

  5. massaysdancestar.com Reply

    It’s fantastic that you are getting thoughts from this paragraph as well
    as from our argument made at this time.

  6. Game of War: Fire Age Hack iPhone Reply

    Thanks in support of sharing such a nice opinion, article is fastidious, thats
    why i have read it entirely

  7. Neu-Ulm Webdesign Reply

    Hi there I am so happy I found your site, I really found you by mistake, while I
    was looking on Bing for something else, Anyways I am here now and would
    just like to say thanks for a incredible post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design),
    I don’t have time to browse it all at the moment but I have bookmarked it and also added
    in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the excellent
    work.

    Stop by my page :: Neu-Ulm Webdesign

  8. Webdesign Ulm Reply

    It’s enormous that you are getting ideas from this paragraph
    as well as from our dialogue made at this place.

    My web-site … Webdesign Ulm

  9. Sherry Reply

    With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any issues of
    plagorism or copyright violation? My website
    has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is
    popping it up all over the internet without my authorization.
    Do you know any ways to help prevent content from being stolen? I’d really appreciate it.

  10. Jannie Reply

    Aw, this was an incredibly nice post. Finding the time and
    actual effort to produce a very good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a lot and don’t manage
    to get anything done.

  11. http://www.koksi1.homepage.eu/guestbook.html Reply

    I used to be suggested this website by my cousin. I’m no longer positive whether this put up is written by way of him as nobody else know such distinct approximately my trouble.
    You are wonderful! Thanks!

  12. personal injury compensation Reply

    Picking a serif font, such as Times New Roman or Baskerville gives a traditional feel
    to the business card and looks nice with more traditional designs.
    Even if a state in an ‘at will’ state, where both employer and employee can terminate the employment
    relationship for any reason, this doesn’t always apply to workers comp cases’but there is a fine line.
    You should be able to call you state Bar Association and find out who keeps this
    database.

  13. Odessa Reply

    Wow that was strange. I just wrote an very long comment but
    after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr…

    well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to
    say superb blog!

  14. Ona Reply

    Do you mind if I quote a couple of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your webpage?
    My website is in the very same area of interest as yours and my visitors would definitely
    benefit from a lot of the information you present here.
    Please let me know if this okay with you. Thanks!

  15. http://jonhalvorsen222.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/angry-birds/ Reply

    Wow, superb weblog layout! How lengthy have you been blogging
    for? you make blogging look easy. The total look of your web site is excellent, let alone the content!

  16. Katherine Reply

    The dog can show him/her off to the situation and the expectations of your pet should not be in the early
    stages within the dog from HHS see story below. Ensure that you can handle them without any handling by the dogs very easily
    learned. In our culture, dog schools and seminars
    available. Dog easily recognizes their master is due to the
    house for the usefulness of the behaviour training.

    Feel free to visit my web page – google.com (Katherine)

  17. high pressure washer review Reply

    I really like looking through an article that can make people think.
    Also, thank you for allowing for me to comment!

  18. pest control boston ma Reply

    No matter what choice you pick, get rid of pests now. What is a
    great place for people to live is, unfortunately, is also a great place for pests to live as well.
    Learn about the pest control boston company before you make a final decision with them.

  19. cydia apps 2013 best of the best Reply

    Launch cydia and include the following repository: cydia.furiousmod.com.
    However, come 2012 and it is expected to start a brand name
    new phone in the marketplace. I have heard of none that offer en jail.

  20. download appcake Reply

    You will not require to do something at this point since you just have
    to wait around for the process to end. GV Mobile + has been in the cydia market for
    jailbroken iPhones since becoming booted final yr.

  21. https://storify.com/ Reply

    That is really fascinating, You’re a very professional blogger.
    I’ve joined your rss feed and look ahead to in quest of extra of your excellent
    post. Also, I’ve shared your site in my social networks

  22. yahoo Reply

    Truly no matter if someone doesn’t know then its up to other people that they will help, so here it takes place.

  23. svensk spilleautomater Reply

    It’s remarkable for me to have a website, which is useful in favor of my knowledge.
    thanks admin

    Here is my web page :: svensk spilleautomater

  24. cydiaspy.com Reply

    For the individuals who are technically audio, it might be a routine procedure but for
    others it is a tiresome job. You can have so numerous icons in just a solitary folder.
    Get some independence of option by merely Jailbreaking your
    iPhone.

  25. indice de masse corporelle femme Reply

    Très bien billet. Merci.

    Feel free to surf to my web blog – indice de masse corporelle femme

  26. weight loss surgery Reply

    After I originally commented I seem to have
    clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added
    I get 4 emails with the same comment. Is there a way you can remove me
    from that service? Thanks a lot!

  27. Direct iOS 8 beta download Reply

    Hellο mates, its fantastic post гegarding tutoringand completely defined,
    ҟeep it up all the time.

  28. http://cypruspayment.com/ Reply

    Hi there, everything is going sound here and ofcourse
    every one is sharing data, that’s really excellent, keep up writing.

  29. Buffalo Tax Lawyer Reply

    Hello! Ι know this is kinda off topic but I waѕ wwondering which blog platform are you using for
    this ѡeƄsite? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve
    had issues with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for
    another platform. I would ƅe fantastic if yoս coսld
    point me in the direction of a good platform.

  30. mistress online training Reply

    I’m not sure why but this blog is loading incredibly slow for me.

    Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end?
    I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

  31. malachite and copper Reply

    When thinking about buying yourself jewelry with precious stones in it,
    please take them into consideration. The importance of
    acupuncture is to perform the same function of herbs by stimulating the movement
    of qi in the channels of which enhances the function of organs
    in fighting against the over growth fungus naturally and maintains the optimal healthy
    by preventing the reoccurring of the diseases.
    It can be used to treat asthma, rheumatism and menstrual disorders.

  32. buy Steroids Mexico Reply

    Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Time limit is exhausted. Please reload the CAPTCHA.

About Dr. Everson

Prior to forming this SBIR consultant practice, Dr. Jeffrey Everson was director of business development for QinetiQ North America’s Technology Solutions Group (previously Foster-Miller, Inc.).

Dr. Everson has won and been the principal investigator for several SBIR programs, including a Phase I program for NASA, a Phase I project for the U.S. Air Force, and Phase I and II contracts from the U.S. Department of Transportation. For the Phase II program, he received a Tibbetts Award for exemplifying the best in SBIR achievement.

Previously Dr. Everson held senior scientist positions at Battelle Memorial Institute, The Analytic Sciences Corporation (TASC), Honeywell Electro Optics Systems Division, and Itek Optical Systems Division.

He holds a PhD in physics from Boston College and a MS/BS in physics from Northeastern University.

Contact

For more information about how JHEverson Consulting can help your company with its SBIR and STTR proposals, please contact Jeff Everson.

JHEverson Consulting is based in the Boston area but consults for clients throughout North America. It also is supported by affiliated consultants.